Bari 0-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palermo (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bari face Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Nicola plays host to Bari versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari at Stadio San Nicola this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 1.20 PPG clear of Bari in recent Serie B fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bari have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Palermo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Palermo have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Bari's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Palermo winning.
It is worth noting that Palermo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Palermo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 37% | Palermo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.92 xG and Palermo 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.827 / defence 1.103 | Palermo attack 0.994 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.023. Data: 59 Bari games / 59 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 29% | Draw 31% | Palermo 40%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Palermo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Bari 70% | Palermo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 29% | Draw 31% | Palermo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Bari 0.92 / Palermo 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.827 / def 1.103 | Palermo attack 0.994 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Palermo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Palermo xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Palermo kick off?
Bari vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Palermo?
Bari 0 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Bari vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Palermo part of?
Bari vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 29% chance of winning, Palermo a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bari and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Palermo?
Record (7 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 2 | Palermo 4W.
What form are Bari and Palermo in?
Bari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Palermo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.83) and Palermo's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.99x) against Bari's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.23
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Bari xG
Total xG
2.04
1.12
Palermo xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Bari and 1.12 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bari's recent record stands at 14W 26D 19L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 17L across 59 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Bari against 1.53 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bari have managed 10W 13D 6L from 29 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 9W 10D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Palermo in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 14W 26D 19L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Palermo have gone 24W 18D 17L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Palermo away?
Bari's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.48 PPG; Palermo away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Bari or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Palermo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Palermo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bari 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Bari, 66% for Palermo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Bari) and 52% (Palermo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Bari's games and 66% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Bari's recent games and 52% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Palermo tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Palermo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Bari 0-3 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.92 xG and Palermo 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bari fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Palermo outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Palermo attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 29% | Draw 31% | Palermo 40%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Palermo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.15 PPG, Palermo 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.