Bari 0-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale San Nicola plays host to Bari versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bari haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bari at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale San Nicola. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio Comunale San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Palermo haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Bari against 1.10 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bari lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Palermo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 42% versus Palermo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 32% | Palermo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.48 xG and Palermo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.016 / defence 0.939 | Palermo attack 1.065 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.061. Data: 38 Bari games / 38 Palermo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Palermo 26%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Palermo 3.85. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bari 40% | Palermo 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Palermo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Bari 1.48 / Palermo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.016 / def 0.939 | Palermo attack 1.065 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bari (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Palermo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Palermo kick off?
Bari vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Palermo?
Bari 0 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Bari vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Palermo part of?
Bari vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 45% chance of winning, Palermo a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bari and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Bari and Palermo in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.02) and Palermo's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.06x) against Bari's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.43
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bari xG
Total xG
2.54
1.06
Palermo xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bari and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bari and 1.06 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bari's recent record stands at 17W 12D 9L from 38 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. Bari haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 11L across 38 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. Palermo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Bari against 1.29 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bari have managed 8W 7D 4L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 3W 8D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.26 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Pre-Season
Palermo
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Palermo in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 12D 9L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Palermo have gone 11W 16D 11L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Palermo away?
Bari's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.63 PPG; Palermo away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Bari or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Palermo in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Palermo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bari 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 42%, Palermo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bari) and 47% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Bari's games and 68% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bari's recent games and 47% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Palermo tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Palermo in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Palermo finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.48 xG and Palermo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Palermo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Palermo attack 1.06 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Palermo 26%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 32%, Palermo 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.66 PPG, Palermo 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.