Bari 2-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bari at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Cosenza at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's home record at Stadio Comunale San Nicola: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bari have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bari have won 1, Cosenza 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 52% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 48% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.88 xG and Cosenza 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.174 / defence 1.213 | Cosenza attack 0.671 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.010. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Bari games / 61 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 62% | Draw 22% | Cosenza 16%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Cosenza 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bari (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bari 50% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 62% | Draw 22% | Cosenza 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.88 / Cosenza 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.174 / def 1.213 | Cosenza attack 0.671 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Bari (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cosenza xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cosenza kick off?
Bari vs Cosenza kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cosenza?
Bari 2 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Bari vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cosenza part of?
Bari vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 62% chance of winning, Cosenza a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Bari and Cosenza in?
Bari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.51
16%
6.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Bari xG
Total xG
2.70
0.82
Cosenza xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.38
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
41.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bari and 0.82 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Bari have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 9W 9D 5L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 5W 7D 11L from 23 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bari are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 3D 7L from 11 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.83 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 9W 9D 5L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cosenza away?
Bari's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.27 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Bari or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cosenza in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
2
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Cosenza have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 54%, Cosenza 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bari) and 27% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 36% of games; Cosenza in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bari's recent matches and 36% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bari's recent games and 27% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Cosenza tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Cosenza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Cosenza 2-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.88 xG and Cosenza 0.82 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.17 / defence 1.21 against Cosenza attack 0.67 / defence 1.36, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 62% | Draw 22% | Cosenza 16%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 48%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.