Bari 0-3 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Bari welcome Carrarese to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bari at Stadio San Nicola this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bari 1.10 PPG, Carrarese 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bari, 2 for Carrarese and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Carrarese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Carrarese in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 42% | Carrarese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.48 xG and Carrarese 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.925 / defence 1.117 | Carrarese attack 0.897 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.093. Data: 69 Bari games / 69 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 27%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 3.70. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 70% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Bari 1.48 / Carrarese 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.925 / def 1.117 | Carrarese attack 0.897 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Bari (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Carrarese xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Carrarese kick off?
Bari vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Carrarese?
Bari 0 - 3 Carrarese.
Where is Bari vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Carrarese part of?
Bari vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 45% chance of winning, Carrarese a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bari and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Carrarese?
Record (3 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 2W.
What form are Bari and Carrarese in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Carrarese (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.47
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bari xG
Total xG
2.58
1.09
Carrarese xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bari and 1.09 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari come into this having played 69 games, going 17W 28D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.17 PPG from 69 outings (19W 24D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.14 PPG, Carrarese on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bari's home form reads 12W 14D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.65 points per game from 34 outings (3W 13D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.12 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 28D 24L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 19W 24D 26L in their last 69 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Carrarese away?
Bari's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.47 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Bari or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Carrarese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Carrarese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Carrarese have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Carrarese won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bari
1
Draws
3
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Carrarese have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bari 0-3 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 65%, Carrarese 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bari) and 50% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Bari's games and 65% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bari's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Carrarese tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Carrarese run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Bari 0-3 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.48 xG and Carrarese 1.09 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Carrarese outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Carrarese attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 27%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 42%, Carrarese 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carrarese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Carrarese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.