Ascoli 0-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Ascoli welcome Palermo to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ascoli are significantly better at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca than their overall form suggests.
Palermo — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.10 PPG, Palermo 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Palermo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 46% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 39% | Palermo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.33 xG and Palermo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.151 / defence 0.929 | Palermo attack 1.126 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.041. Data: 42 Ascoli games / 41 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 31% | Palermo 29%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Palermo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Palermo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 31% | Palermo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Ascoli 1.33 / Palermo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.151 / def 0.929 | Palermo attack 1.126 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Palermo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Palermo kick off?
Ascoli vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Palermo?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Ascoli vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Palermo part of?
Ascoli vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 40% chance of winning, Palermo a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ascoli and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Palermo in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (1.15) and Palermo's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.21
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.42
1.09
Palermo xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.09 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 11D 18L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.37 PPG from 41 outings (13W 17D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.15 PPG, Palermo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ascoli's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (4W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Palermo in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Palermo have gone 13W 17D 11L in their last 41 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Palermo away?
Ascoli's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.26 PPG; Palermo away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ascoli's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Palermo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Palermo 2-2 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 47%, Palermo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ascoli) and 47% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ascoli's games and 68% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ascoli's recent games and 47% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Palermo tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Palermo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.33 xG and Palermo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Palermo attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 40% | Draw 31% | Palermo 29%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 39%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.15 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.