Venezia 0-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Inter meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter away from home this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Venezia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Inter in 86%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Inter half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 54% and Inter 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 46% | Inter 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.18 xG and Inter 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.910 / defence 1.250 | Inter attack 1.003 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.390. Data: 13 Venezia games / 13 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 24% | Inter 51%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 1.96. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 80% | Inter 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 24% | Inter 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Venezia 1.18 / Inter 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.910 / def 1.250 | Inter attack 1.003 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Inter (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Inter xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Inter kick off?
Venezia vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Inter?
Venezia 0 - 2 Inter.
Where is Venezia vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Inter part of?
Venezia vs Inter is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 26% chance of winning, Inter a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Venezia and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Inter?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Inter in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Inter (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.91x the league average against Inter's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.00x) against Venezia's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
26%
3.87
24%
4.24
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.92
1.74
Inter xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
5%
22.07
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Venezia and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Venezia and 1.74 for Inter, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 3D 6L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Venezia's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Inter in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Inter have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.40 PPG; Inter away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Venezia
0
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Inter?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Inter have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Venezia 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Venezia, 80% for Inter — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Venezia and 60% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Venezia's games and 80% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Venezia's matches and 60% of Inter's.
Do Venezia and Inter tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Inter in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.18 xG and Inter 1.74 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Inter attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 26% | Draw 24% | Inter 51%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 46%, Inter 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.