Venezia 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 16 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Venezia, 1.30 for Empoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Empoli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 55% and Empoli 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Empoli 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.16 xG and Empoli 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.825 / defence 1.378 | Empoli attack 0.964 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.583. Data: 20 Venezia games / 21 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 20% | Draw 21% | Empoli 59%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Empoli 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 20% | Draw 21% | Empoli 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Venezia 1.16 / Empoli 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.825 / def 1.378 | Empoli attack 0.964 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Empoli (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Empoli xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Empoli kick off?
Venezia vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Empoli?
Venezia 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Venezia vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Empoli part of?
Venezia vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 20% chance of winning, Empoli a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Venezia and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Venezia and Empoli in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.82) and Empoli's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.96x) against Venezia's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
20%
4.91
21%
4.84
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.26
2.10
Empoli xG
4.91
20%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
12%
8.18
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
2%
40.21
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Venezia and 2.10 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 5D 11L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 2W 2D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.80 points per game from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.65 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Empoli in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.80 PPG; Empoli away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Venezia
4
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Empoli?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Venezia, 60% for Empoli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Venezia) and 50% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 60% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Venezia's matches and 50% of Empoli's.
Do Venezia and Empoli tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Empoli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.16 xG and Empoli 2.10 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Empoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.38 against Empoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 20% | Draw 21% | Empoli 59%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Empoli 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Empoli arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.