Udinese 1-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Udinese at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Monza at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Udinese — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Udinese at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Monza have recorded 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Monza have gone 0W 0D 10L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Udinese have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Udinese, 0 for Monza and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2024, ended Udinese 2–1 Monza — a Udinese win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | Monza 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.53 xG and Monza 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.839 / defence 1.114 | Monza attack 0.721 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.118. Monza's defence rating of 1.538 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Udinese's projected output up. Monza's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Udinese's last 73 games and Monza's last 73.
Result probabilities: Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.94 | Draw 3.69 | Monza 4.66. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Monza's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Monza 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Udinese 1.53 / Monza 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.839 / def 1.114 | Monza attack 0.721 / def 1.538 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Udinese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Monza xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Monza FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Monza kick off?
Udinese vs Monza kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Monza?
Udinese 1 - 2 Monza.
Where is Udinese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Monza part of?
Udinese vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 51% chance of winning, Monza a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Udinese and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Udinese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.84) and Monza's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 73 games and Monza's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.69
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.43
0.90
Monza xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Udinese and 0.90 for Monza, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 73 games, going 18W 27D 28L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Monza sit at 0.82 PPG from 73 outings (13W 21D 39L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.11 PPG, Monza on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 8W 14D 14L across their last 36 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 36 away games (6W 10D 20L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.88 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Monza in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 18W 27D 28L in their last 73 games (1.11 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 21D 39L in their last 73 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Monza away?
Udinese's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.06 PPG; Monza away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Udinese
3
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Monza 2-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Monza?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 53%, Monza 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Udinese) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 31% of games; Monza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Udinese's recent matches and 42% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Udinese's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Udinese's recent matches and 58% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.53 xG and Monza 0.90 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monza outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Monza attack 0.72 / defence 1.54, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Monza 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.11 PPG, Monza 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 36
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →