Udinese 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Juventus meet at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Juventus have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Juventus, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Juventus winning.
It is worth noting that Juventus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Juventus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 52% | Juventus 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.32 xG and Juventus 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.984 / defence 0.993 | Juventus attack 1.326 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.176. Juventus have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Udinese games / 66 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 25% | Juventus 43%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Juventus 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 40% | Juventus 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 25% | Juventus 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Udinese 1.32 / Juventus 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.984 / def 0.993 | Juventus attack 1.326 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Juventus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Juventus xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Juventus kick off?
Udinese vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Juventus?
Udinese 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Udinese vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Juventus part of?
Udinese vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 33% chance of winning, Juventus a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Udinese and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Juventus?
Record (9 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | Juventus 7W.
What form are Udinese and Juventus in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Juventus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.98) and Juventus's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.33x) against Udinese's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
33%
3.07
25%
4.04
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.87
1.55
Juventus xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Udinese and 1.55 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese's recent record stands at 22W 14D 30L from 66 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 32W 24D 10L across 66 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 12W 7D 14L from 33 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 13W 12D 8L across 33 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.64 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Juventus in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 22W 14D 30L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Juventus have gone 32W 24D 10L in their last 66 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.30 PPG; Juventus away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Udinese or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Juventus in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
1
Draws
8
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Juventus have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 46%, Juventus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 42% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Juventus in 30%; Udinese have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Udinese's recent matches and 54% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Udinese's recent games and 42% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Juventus tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juventus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.32 xG and Juventus 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Juventus attack 1.33 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 33% | Draw 25% | Juventus 43%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 52%, Juventus 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.