Udinese 2-6 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Atalanta at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 2W 5D 2L at Dacia Arena — 1.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Udinese, 0 for Atalanta and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Atalanta trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 56% and Atalanta 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Atalanta 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.836 / defence 0.994 | Atalanta attack 1.007 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.512. Data: 18 Udinese games / 19 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 50%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Atalanta 2.00. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 56% | Atalanta 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Udinese 0.93 / Atalanta 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.836 / def 0.994 | Atalanta attack 1.007 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Atalanta xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Atalanta kick off?
Udinese vs Atalanta kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Udinese 2 - 6 Atalanta.
Where is Udinese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Atalanta part of?
Udinese vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 23% chance of winning, Atalanta a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Udinese and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Atalanta (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.84) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
23%
4.41
27%
3.71
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.44
1.51
Atalanta xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
20.01
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Udinese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Udinese and 1.51 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 4W 8D 6L from 18 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 3L across 18 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 7W 2D 0L across 9 trips, a 2.56 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.94 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 4W 8D 6L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.22 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Atalanta runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
6
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Atalanta have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 56%, Atalanta 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Udinese) and 67% (Atalanta). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 33%; Udinese have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Udinese's games and 67% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Udinese's matches and 67% of Atalanta's.
Do Udinese and Atalanta tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Udinese 2-6 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.51 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atalanta outscored their 1.51 projection by 4.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Atalanta attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 23% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 50%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Atalanta 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.