Spezia 0-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Monza have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Monza are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 54% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 55% | Monza 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.99 xG and Monza 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.768 / defence 1.243 | Monza attack 0.990 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.122. Spezia's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Spezia games / 31 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 27% | Monza 46%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 2.17. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 40% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 27% | Monza 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Spezia 0.99 / Monza 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.768 / def 1.243 | Monza attack 0.990 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Monza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Monza xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Monza kick off?
Spezia vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Monza?
Spezia 0 - 2 Monza.
Where is Spezia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Monza part of?
Spezia vs Monza is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 27% chance of winning, Monza a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Spezia and Monza in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Monza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.77) and Monza's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.99x) against Spezia's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
27%
3.72
27%
3.68
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.37
1.38
Monza xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Spezia and 1.38 for Monza, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 15W 18D 36L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 33W 15D 21L from 69 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.03 PPG from 34 outings (8W 11D 15L).
On the road, Monza have gone 13W 8D 13L from 34 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.52 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Monza in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 15W 18D 36L in their last 69 games (0.91 PPG), while Monza have gone 33W 15D 21L in their last 69 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.03 PPG; Monza away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Spezia or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Monza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
0
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Monza have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Spezia 4-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 59%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spezia) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 26% of games; Monza in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Spezia's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Monza tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Monza in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.99 xG and Monza 1.38 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.24 against Monza attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 27% | Draw 27% | Monza 46%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 55%, Monza 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.