Spezia 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spezia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Bologna at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.00 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Spezia have won 0, Bologna 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bologna trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 55% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 60% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.38 xG and Bologna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.994 / defence 1.164 | Bologna attack 0.868 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.055. Data: 42 Spezia games / 42 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 40% | Draw 35% | Bologna 25%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Bologna 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Bologna 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 40% | Draw 35% | Bologna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Spezia 1.38 / Bologna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.994 / def 1.164 | Bologna attack 0.868 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Spezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Bologna kick off?
Spezia vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Bologna?
Spezia 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Spezia vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Bologna part of?
Spezia vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 40% chance of winning, Bologna a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Spezia and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Spezia and Bologna in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.99x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
40%
2.48
35%
2.89
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Bologna xG
2.48
40%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
6%
15.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Spezia and 1.07 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 11W 7D 24L from 42 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 18L across 42 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.95 PPG, Bologna on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 6W 4D 11L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.12 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Bologna in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 11W 7D 24L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Bologna have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Bologna away?
Spezia's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.05 PPG; Bologna away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Spezia or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spezia's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Bologna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Bologna 2-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 57%, Bologna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Spezia) and 52% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Spezia's recent matches and 52% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Spezia's recent games and 52% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Spezia and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Bologna finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.38 xG and Bologna 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Bologna attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 40% | Draw 35% | Bologna 25%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 60%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.95 PPG, Bologna 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.