Sassuolo 1-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Empoli at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Empoli at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sassuolo — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sassuolo at 1.40 PPG versus Empoli's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 70% and Empoli 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 70% | Empoli 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.15 xG and Empoli 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.806 / defence 1.004 | Empoli attack 1.023 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.419. Data: 10 Sassuolo games / 10 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 30% | Draw 26% | Empoli 44%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Empoli 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Sassuolo 40% | Empoli 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 30% | Draw 26% | Empoli 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Sassuolo 1.15 / Empoli 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.806 / def 1.004 | Empoli attack 1.023 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Empoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Empoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Empoli kick off?
Sassuolo vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Empoli?
Sassuolo 1 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Sassuolo vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Empoli part of?
Sassuolo vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 30% chance of winning, Empoli a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sassuolo and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Empoli in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.81) and Empoli's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.85
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.61
1.46
Empoli xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.46 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.40 PPG, Empoli on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.20 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Empoli in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Empoli have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.50 PPG; Empoli away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Sassuolo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sassuolo
0
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 3, Empoli have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Sassuolo 2-3 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 50%, Empoli 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sassuolo) and 25% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 25% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sassuolo's recent games and 25% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Empoli tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Empoli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Sassuolo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Sassuolo 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.15 xG and Empoli 1.46 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Empoli attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 30% | Draw 26% | Empoli 44%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 70%, Empoli 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.40 PPG, Empoli 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.