Sampdoria 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 2D 3L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sampdoria, 1.20 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Bologna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 82% | Bologna 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 2.03 xG and Bologna 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.951 / defence 1.498 | Bologna attack 0.666 / defence 1.661. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.361. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.661 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Sampdoria games / 11 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 53% | Draw 21% | Bologna 26%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Bologna 3.85. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 67% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 53% | Draw 21% | Bologna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Sampdoria 2.03 / Bologna 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.951 / def 1.498 | Bologna attack 0.666 / def 1.661 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bologna xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Bologna kick off?
Sampdoria vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Sampdoria vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Bologna part of?
Sampdoria vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 53% chance of winning, Bologna a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sampdoria and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Bologna in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.67x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
53%
1.89
21%
4.66
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.39
1.36
Bologna xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
3%
29.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.36 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 4L across 11 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.55 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Bologna have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Bologna away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.00 PPG; Bologna away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bologna in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Bologna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Sampdoria 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Sampdoria, 60% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sampdoria and 60% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sampdoria's games and 60% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sampdoria's matches and 60% of Bologna's.
Do Sampdoria and Bologna tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 2.03 xG and Bologna 1.36 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.50 against Bologna attack 0.67 / defence 1.66, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 53% | Draw 21% | Bologna 26%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 82%, Bologna 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.