Salernitana 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Salernitana (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salernitana have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Arechi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bologna have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 0.80 PPG clear of Salernitana in recent Serie A fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Salernitana lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 52% versus Bologna 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 58% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.38 xG and Bologna 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.956 / defence 1.184 | Bologna attack 1.034 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.136. Data: 64 Salernitana games / 64 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 37% | Draw 25% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 37% | Draw 25% | Bologna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Salernitana 1.38 / Bologna 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.956 / def 1.184 | Bologna attack 1.034 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Bologna xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Bologna kick off?
Salernitana vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Bologna?
Salernitana 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Salernitana vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Bologna part of?
Salernitana vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 37% chance of winning, Bologna a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Salernitana and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 2 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Bologna in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.96) and Bologna's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.03x) against Salernitana's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
37%
2.71
25%
3.93
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.77
1.39
Bologna xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.39 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 13W 18D 33L from 64 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 26L across 64 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Salernitana against 1.28 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 7W 9D 15L from 31 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 8W 7D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.17 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Bologna in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 13W 18D 33L in their last 64 games (0.89 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 16D 26L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.97 PPG; Bologna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bologna?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Bologna 3-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 48%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Salernitana) and 61% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 39% of games; Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Salernitana's recent matches and 58% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Salernitana's matches and 61% of Bologna's.
Do Salernitana and Bologna tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bologna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana and Bologna finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.38 xG and Bologna 1.39 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Bologna attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 37% | Draw 25% | Bologna 38%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 58%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.89 PPG, Bologna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.