Salernitana 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 1 as Salernitana welcome AS Roma to Stadio Arechi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Salernitana have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Salernitana haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. AS Roma haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Salernitana 1.50 PPG, AS Roma 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Salernitana register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Salernitana, 2 for AS Roma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
AS Roma in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 53% versus AS Roma 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 58% | AS Roma 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.24 xG and AS Roma 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.907 / defence 1.117 | AS Roma attack 1.024 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.420. Data: 38 Salernitana games / 38 AS Roma games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 28% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 46%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 2.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 70% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 28% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Salernitana 1.24 / AS Roma 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.907 / def 1.117 | AS Roma attack 1.024 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.62
AS Roma xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs AS Roma kick off?
Salernitana vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Salernitana 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Salernitana vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs AS Roma part of?
Salernitana vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 28% chance of winning, AS Roma a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Salernitana and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Salernitana and AS Roma in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Salernitana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.91) and AS Roma's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
28%
3.51
26%
3.89
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.86
1.62
AS Roma xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
6%
17.84
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Salernitana and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.62 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 7W 10D 21L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. Salernitana haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
AS Roma's form line: 18W 9D 11L from 38 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. AS Roma haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 0.79 PPG from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salernitana are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.55 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Pre-Season
AS Roma
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 7W 10D 21L in their last 38 games (0.82 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.79 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Salernitana or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, AS Roma in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when AS Roma won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salernitana's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and AS Roma?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 47%, AS Roma 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Salernitana) and 58% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Salernitana's recent matches and 58% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Salernitana's matches and 58% of AS Roma's.
Do Salernitana and AS Roma tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Salernitana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Salernitana 0-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.24 xG and AS Roma 1.62 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Salernitana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 28% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 58%, AS Roma 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.