Salernitana 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Salernitana face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Salernitana welcome AS Roma to Stadio Arechi in Serie A (matchday 22). Kick-off is Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salernitana at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AS Roma have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Salernitana's games and 60% of AS Roma's (from Salernitana's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
AS Roma have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Salernitana.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Salernitana 2–2 AS Roma — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. AS Roma have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 58% versus AS Roma 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 59% | AS Roma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.35 xG and AS Roma 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.903 / defence 1.385 | AS Roma attack 0.952 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.080. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from Salernitana's last 59 games and AS Roma's last 59.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 35% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 38%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.89 | Draw 3.63 | AS Roma 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Salernitana's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salernitana 70% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 35% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Salernitana 1.35 / AS Roma 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.903 / def 1.385 | AS Roma attack 0.952 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.42
AS Roma xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salernitana vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Salernitana vs AS Roma kick off?
Salernitana vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Salernitana 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Salernitana vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs AS Roma part of?
Salernitana vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 35% chance of winning, AS Roma a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Salernitana and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salernitana vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.90) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salernitana's last 59 games and AS Roma's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.63
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.78
1.42
AS Roma xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salernitana vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Salernitana and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.42 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 11W 21D 27L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 27W 14D 18L from 59 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 29 home games (8W 10D 11L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 9W 8D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Salernitana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.42 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
Salernitana (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salernitana
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Salernitana vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Salernitana and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 11W 21D 27L in their last 59 games (0.92 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.17 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Salernitana or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2021, when AS Roma won Salernitana 0-4 AS Roma.
Salernitana's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Salernitana vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and AS Roma?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Salernitana have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 January 2024: Salernitana 1-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 62%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Salernitana) and 48% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salernitana vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salernitana and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Salernitana's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Salernitana and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Salernitana's matches and 48% of AS Roma's.
Do Salernitana and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Salernitana's recent matches and 76% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Salernitana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Salernitana 1-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.35 xG and AS Roma 1.42 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.90 / defence 1.39 against AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 35% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 38%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 59%, AS Roma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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