Pisa 1-2 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lecce at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Lecce (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Lecce have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lecce are 0.50 PPG clear of Pisa in recent Serie A fixtures (0.80 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pisa lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Lecce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 49% versus Lecce 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 51% | Lecce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.83 xG and Lecce 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.668 / defence 1.233 | Lecce attack 0.650 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.140. Pisa's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Pisa games / 72 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 31% | Draw 34% | Lecce 36%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Lecce 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Lecce 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 31% | Draw 34% | Lecce 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Pisa 0.83 / Lecce 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.668 / def 1.233 | Lecce attack 0.650 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Lecce (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lecce xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Lecce kick off?
Pisa vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Lecce?
Pisa 1 - 2 Lecce.
Where is Pisa vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Lecce part of?
Pisa vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 31% chance of winning, Lecce a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Pisa and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Lecce?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Lecce 2W.
What form are Pisa and Lecce in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.67) and Lecce's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.65x) against Pisa's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
31%
3.24
34%
2.98
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.74
0.91
Lecce xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 16.0 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Pisa and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Pisa and 0.91 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 72 games, going 24W 20D 28L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 0.88 PPG from 72 outings (15W 18D 39L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 15W 8D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.78 points per game from 36 outings (7W 7D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.68 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Lecce in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 24W 20D 28L in their last 72 games (1.28 PPG), while Lecce have gone 15W 18D 39L in their last 72 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Lecce away?
Pisa's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.47 PPG; Lecce away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lecce have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pisa
0
Draws
3
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Lecce?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Lecce have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Pisa 1-2 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 47%, Lecce 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pisa) and 31% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 36% of games; Lecce in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pisa's recent matches and 36% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pisa's recent games and 31% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Lecce tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Lecce in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.83 xG and Lecce 0.91 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lecce outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.67 / defence 1.23 against Lecce attack 0.65 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 31% | Draw 34% | Lecce 36%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 51%, Lecce 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.