Pisa 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Pisa take on Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 3W 4D 3L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Pisa, 1 for Cremonese and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 52% and Cremonese 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Cremonese 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.58 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.465 / defence 0.833 | Cremonese attack 0.975 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.062. Pisa's attack strength of 0.465 is below the league average — the 0.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Pisa games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 39% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.55 | Draw 2.56 | Cremonese 2.56. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.44. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.44 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Summary & Verdict
Pisa dominate the H2H record, yet Cremonese are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 22% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 40% | Cremonese 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 39% | Cremonese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Pisa 0.58 / Cremonese 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.465 / def 0.833 | Cremonese attack 0.975 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.58
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cremonese xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cremonese kick off?
Pisa vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Pisa 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Pisa vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cremonese part of?
Pisa vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 22% chance of winning, Cremonese a 39% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Pisa and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
Record (6 meetings): Pisa 3W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in?
Pisa (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.47x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.8%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
22%
4.54
39%
2.55
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.58
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.44
0.86
Cremonese xG
4.54
22%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.76
73%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
56%
1.79
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
22%
4.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.6 | 20.4 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Pisa and 0.86 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 22W 14D 12L from 48 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 10L across 48 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.67 PPG, Cremonese on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 13W 7D 4L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 11W 7D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.58 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 69%.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 22W 14D 12L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 19W 19D 10L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cremonese away?
Pisa's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.92 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cremonese?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Cremonese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pisa) and 62% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pisa have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pisa's games and 62% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Pisa's matches and 62% of Cremonese's.
Do Pisa and Cremonese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cremonese 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.58 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG, a combined 1.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.47 / defence 0.83 against Cremonese attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 22% | Draw 39% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 43% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.67 PPG, Cremonese 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.