Parma vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Parma welcome Udinese to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Udinese — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Parma) versus 1.50 (Udinese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Parma, 3 for Udinese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Udinese in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 38% versus Udinese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 28% | Udinese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.09 xG and Udinese 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.840 / defence 0.984 | Udinese attack 1.216 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Parma games / 40 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Parma 28% | Draw 26% | Udinese 46%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.17. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Udinese 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 28% | Draw 26% | Udinese 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Parma 1.09 / Udinese 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.840 / def 0.984 | Udinese attack 1.216 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Udinese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Udinese xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Udinese kick off?
Parma vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Udinese part of?
Parma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 28% chance of winning, Udinese a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Parma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Udinese 3W.
What form are Parma and Udinese in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.84x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.85
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Parma xG
Total xG
2.57
1.48
Udinese xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Parma and 1.48 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Parma have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 12D 17L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.12 PPG, Udinese on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Udinese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.05 PPG; Udinese away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Parma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
0
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 45%, Udinese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Parma) and 55% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Parma's recent matches and 55% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Parma's recent games and 55% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Udinese tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Udinese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.