Parma 0-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cremonese at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Cremonese — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cremonese away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Parma have won 1, Cremonese 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 46% | Cremonese 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.26 xG and Cremonese 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.775 / defence 1.093 | Cremonese attack 0.644 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.182. Parma's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Parma games / 29 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 4.00. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 50% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Parma 1.26 / Cremonese 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.775 / def 1.093 | Cremonese attack 0.644 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cremonese xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cremonese kick off?
Parma vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Parma 0 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Parma vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cremonese part of?
Parma vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 46% chance of winning, Cremonese a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Parma and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Parma and Cremonese in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.78) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.44
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Parma xG
Total xG
2.09
0.83
Cremonese xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Parma and 0.83 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Parma have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 15W 25D 27L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 21W 23D 23L from 67 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.04 PPG, Cremonese on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.06 PPG from 33 outings (8W 11D 14L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 11W 8D 14L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.30 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 15W 25D 27L in their last 67 games (1.04 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 23D 23L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.06 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cremonese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 61%, Cremonese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Parma) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 30% of games; Cremonese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Parma's games and 52% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Parma's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cremonese tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Parma 0-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.26 xG and Cremonese 0.83 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Parma fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Cremonese attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 25%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.04 PPG, Cremonese 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.