Parma vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Bologna at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Parma are significantly better at Stadio Ennio Tardini than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Parma, 1 for Bologna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bologna trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 41% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 32% | Bologna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.07 xG and Bologna 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.865 / defence 0.985 | Bologna attack 0.912 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Data: 44 Parma games / 45 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 29% | Bologna 36%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 60% | Bologna 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 29% | Bologna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Parma 1.07 / Bologna 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.865 / def 0.985 | Bologna attack 0.912 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Bologna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bologna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Bologna kick off?
Parma vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Bologna part of?
Parma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 34% chance of winning, Bologna a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Parma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Parma and Bologna in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.86x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
34%
2.91
29%
3.42
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Parma xG
Total xG
2.19
1.11
Bologna xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Parma and 1.11 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 13D 19L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (17W 10D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.11 PPG, Bologna on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 6W 6D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.76 points per game from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Bologna in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Bologna have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.14 PPG; Bologna away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Bologna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Bologna?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 48%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Parma) and 52% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Parma's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Parma's recent games and 52% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Bologna tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Bologna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.