Monza 2-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to U-Power Stadium to face Monza in Serie A (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Monza (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Monza's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Monza, 0.80 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Monza's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) — Monza have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Venezia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 46% versus Venezia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 39% | Venezia 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Monza surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.50 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.825 / defence 1.044 | Venezia attack 0.700 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.247. Venezia's defence rating of 1.300 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monza's projected output up. Venezia's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Monza's last 46 games and Venezia's last 8.
Result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 30% | Venezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.04 | Draw 3.29 | Venezia 4.83. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Monza 70% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 9 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 30% | Venezia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Monza 1.50 / Venezia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.825 / def 1.044 | Venezia attack 0.700 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Monza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Venezia xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Monza vs Venezia kick off?
Monza vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Venezia?
Monza 2 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Monza vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Venezia part of?
Monza vs Venezia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 49% chance of winning, Venezia a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Monza and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Monza vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.82x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.70x) against Monza's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 46 games and Venezia's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.29
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Monza xG
Total xG
2.42
0.91
Venezia xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
21.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Monza and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Monza and 0.91 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 16D 18L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.65 PPG from 46 outings (23W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Monza's home form reads 6W 8D 9L across their last 23 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 23 away games (8W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.57 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Monza (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Monza vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Venezia in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Venezia have gone 23W 7D 16L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.13 PPG; Venezia away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Monza or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Venezia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Monza and Venezia, the earliest from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Venezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Monza 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 56%, Venezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Monza) and 70% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Venezia in 35%; Venezia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Venezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Monza's recent matches and 52% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monza and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Monza's recent games and 70% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Monza's recent matches and 61% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Monza and Venezia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.50 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Venezia attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 49% | Draw 30% | Venezia 21%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 39%, Venezia 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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