Monza 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Monza at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Udinese at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Monza have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Monza, 1 for Udinese and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 45% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 40% | Udinese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.45 xG and Udinese 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.012 / defence 0.751 | Udinese attack 0.688 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.163. Monza's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Monza games / 47 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 57% | Draw 28% | Udinese 15%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Monza (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Udinese's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Monza 40% | Udinese 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 57% | Draw 28% | Udinese 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 35% | xG Monza 1.45 / Udinese 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.012 / def 0.751 | Udinese attack 0.688 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Monza (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Udinese xG
35%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Udinese kick off?
Monza vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Udinese?
Monza 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Monza vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Udinese part of?
Monza vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 57% chance of winning, Udinese a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Monza and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Monza and Udinese in?
Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 2-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
57%
1.75
28%
3.54
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Monza xG
Total xG
2.05
0.60
Udinese xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
3%
28.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Monza and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Monza and 0.60 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 13D 17L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.11 PPG from 47 outings (11W 19D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.36 PPG, Udinese on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Monza's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Udinese in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 19D 17L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Udinese away?
Monza's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.48 PPG; Udinese away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Monza's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Monza
3
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Udinese?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Udinese have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Udinese 1-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 48%, Udinese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Monza) and 44% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Udinese in 30%; Udinese in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Monza's recent matches and 44% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Monza's recent games and 44% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Udinese tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Udinese in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.45 xG and Udinese 0.60 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.01 / defence 0.75 against Udinese attack 0.69 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 57% | Draw 28% | Udinese 15%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 40%, Udinese 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.36 PPG, Udinese 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.