Monza 0-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lazio at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 2 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at U-Power Stadium, Monza have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lazio's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lazio arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Monza 0W, Lazio 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Lazio half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Lazio 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 52% | Lazio 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 0.73 xG and Lazio 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.886 / defence 1.097 | Lazio attack 1.065 / defence 0.640. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.146. Lazio's defence strength of 0.640 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Monza games / 65 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 20% | Draw 28% | Lazio 51%. Fair-value odds: Monza 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Lazio 1.96. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Monza 60% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 20% | Draw 28% | Lazio 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Monza 0.73 / Lazio 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.886 / def 1.097 | Lazio attack 1.065 / def 0.640 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Lazio (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lazio xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Lazio kick off?
Monza vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Lazio?
Monza 0 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Monza vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Lazio part of?
Monza vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 20% chance of winning, Lazio a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Monza and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Lazio?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 0 | Lazio 1W.
What form are Monza and Lazio in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Lazio (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.06x) against Monza's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
20%
4.94
28%
3.53
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Monza xG
Total xG
2.06
1.34
Lazio xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
5%
18.83
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 17.0 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Monza and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Monza and 1.34 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Monza have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 31W 14D 20L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio's form line: 33W 17D 15L from 65 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Monza against 1.78 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.91 PPG from 32 outings (18W 7D 7L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 15W 8D 9L from 32 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.83 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Lazio in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 31W 14D 20L in their last 65 games (1.65 PPG), while Lazio have gone 33W 17D 15L in their last 65 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Lazio away?
Monza's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.91 PPG; Lazio away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Monza or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lazio in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 5-1 on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Lazio?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lazio 5-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 53%, Lazio 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Monza) and 62% (Lazio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lazio in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Monza's recent matches and 47% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Monza's matches and 62% of Lazio's.
Do Monza and Lazio tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lazio in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Monza 0-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 0.73 xG and Lazio 1.34 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Lazio attack 1.06 / defence 0.64, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 20% | Draw 28% | Lazio 51%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 52%, Lazio 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.65 PPG, Lazio 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.