Lecce 1-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lecce and Empoli meet at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecce have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lecce at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Empoli have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lecce, 1 for Empoli and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 51% versus Empoli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 36% | Empoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.04 xG and Empoli 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.749 / defence 1.154 | Empoli attack 0.902 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.184. Lecce's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Lecce games / 69 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 30% | Empoli 40%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 50% | Empoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 30% | Empoli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Lecce 1.04 / Empoli 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.749 / def 1.154 | Empoli attack 0.902 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Empoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Empoli xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Empoli kick off?
Lecce vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Lecce 1 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Lecce vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Empoli part of?
Lecce vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 30% chance of winning, Empoli a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lecce and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 2 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Lecce and Empoli in?
Lecce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lecce's attack at 0.75x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.90x) against Lecce's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
30%
3.31
30%
3.32
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.27
1.23
Empoli xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lecce and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Lecce and 1.23 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce come into this having played 69 games, going 14W 23D 32L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.03 PPG from 69 outings (17W 20D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Lecce against 1.03 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lecce's home form reads 8W 13D 13L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.88 points per game from 34 outings (6W 12D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.90 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 23D 32L in their last 69 games (0.94 PPG), while Empoli have gone 17W 20D 32L in their last 69 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Empoli away?
Lecce's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.09 PPG; Empoli away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lecce
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Empoli 1-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Empoli?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 59%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lecce) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 32% of games; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lecce's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lecce's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Empoli tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Empoli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Empoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.04 xG and Empoli 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against Empoli attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 30% | Draw 30% | Empoli 40%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 36%, Empoli 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 0.94 PPG, Empoli 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.