Lazio 3-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lazio and Venezia meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lazio (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lazio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lazio, 0 for Venezia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lazio — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).
Venezia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 50% versus Venezia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 40% | Venezia 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.59 xG and Venezia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.979 / defence 0.888 | Venezia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.183. Data: 38 Lazio games / 0 Venezia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lazio 51% | Draw 30% | Venezia 18%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 5.56. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 40% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 51% | Draw 30% | Venezia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Lazio 1.59 / Venezia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.979 / def 0.888 | Venezia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Lazio (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Venezia xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Venezia kick off?
Lazio vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Venezia?
Lazio 3 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Lazio vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Venezia part of?
Lazio vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 51% chance of winning, Venezia a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lazio and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Lazio and Venezia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lazio (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lazio's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.85x) against Lazio's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.30
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.48
0.89
Venezia xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
4%
26.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lazio and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lazio and 0.89 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lazio come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 7D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. Lazio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.89 PPG from 38 outings (22W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. Venezia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Lazio against 1.89 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lazio's home form reads 10W 4D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lazio are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.76 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Pre-Season
Venezia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Venezia in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while Venezia have gone 22W 6D 10L in their last 38 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Venezia away?
Lazio's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.79 PPG; Venezia away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Lazio or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Venezia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lazio
1
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, Venezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Venezia 0-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Venezia?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lazio see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 37%, Venezia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Lazio) and 63% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Venezia in 42%; Lazio have failed to score in 26% of games; Venezia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Lazio's recent matches and 47% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Lazio's recent games and 63% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Venezia 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.59 xG and Venezia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 51% | Draw 30% | Venezia 18%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 40%, Venezia 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.61 PPG, Venezia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.