Lazio 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to Lazio versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 19 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lazio (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Lazio against 1.70 for AS Roma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Lazio 2W, AS Roma 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 52% versus AS Roma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 62% | AS Roma 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.43 xG and AS Roma 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.070 / defence 0.925 | AS Roma attack 1.063 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.154. Data: 64 Lazio games / 64 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 44% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 30% | AS Roma 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 44% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Lazio 1.43 / AS Roma 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.070 / def 0.925 | AS Roma attack 1.063 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Lazio (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.14
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs AS Roma kick off?
Lazio vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Lazio 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Lazio vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs AS Roma part of?
Lazio vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 44% chance of winning, AS Roma a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lazio and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Lazio and AS Roma in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lazio's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.06x) against Lazio's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.81
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.56
1.14
AS Roma xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lazio and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Lazio and 1.14 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lazio's recent record stands at 32W 17D 15L from 64 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 32W 14D 18L across 64 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Lazio against 1.72 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 17W 9D 6L from 32 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 14W 7D 11L across 32 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lazio are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AS Roma in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 32W 17D 15L in their last 64 games (1.77 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 32W 14D 18L in their last 64 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or AS Roma away?
Lazio's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.88 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lazio or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AS Roma in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lazio
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 56%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lazio) and 56% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lazio's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lazio's matches and 56% of AS Roma's.
Do Lazio and AS Roma tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat AS Roma 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.43 xG and AS Roma 1.14 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 44% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 62%, AS Roma 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Roma's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.77 PPG, AS Roma 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.