Hellas Verona 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Udinese at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hellas Verona face Udinese.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Hellas Verona and Udinese meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Current Form

Hellas Verona's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Hellas Verona at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Udinese's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Hellas Verona 3–3 Udinese — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Udinese — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 55% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 44% | Udinese 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Udinese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.20 xG and Udinese 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.868 / defence 1.183 | Udinese attack 0.863 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.185. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 70 games and Udinese's last 69.

Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 28% | Udinese 36%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.82 | Draw 3.52 | Udinese 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 70% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights