Hellas Verona 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hellas Verona face Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hellas Verona welcome Parma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Monday 31 March 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Parma have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 0.60 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Hellas Verona have won 1, Parma 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended Hellas Verona 3–2 Parma — a Hellas Verona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Parma trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 51% versus Parma 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 54% | Parma 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.22 xG and Parma 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.754 / defence 1.436 | Parma attack 0.772 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.173. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Parma's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Parma's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.436 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 67 games and Parma's last 29.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 29% | Parma 37%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.96 | Draw 3.46 | Parma 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 30% (last 10 home games) | Parma 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 31 March 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 29% | Parma 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.22 / Parma 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.754 / def 1.436 | Parma attack 0.772 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Parma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Parma FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Parma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Parma kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Monday 31 March 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Parma part of?
Hellas Verona vs Parma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 34% chance of winning, Parma a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hellas Verona and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hellas Verona vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.75) and Parma's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 67 games and Parma's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.46
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.52
1.30
Parma xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.30 for Parma, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 18W 13D 36L from 67 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 26W 23D 18L across 67 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 10W 7D 16L from their last 33 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 11W 12D 10L across their last 33 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 66%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Hellas Verona vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Parma in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 18W 13D 36L in their last 67 games (1.00 PPG), while Parma have gone 26W 23D 18L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.12 PPG; Parma away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Parma have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Parma?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Parma 2-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 54%, Parma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hellas Verona and 58% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 30% of games; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Parma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hellas Verona's games and 61% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hellas Verona and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hellas Verona's matches and 58% of Parma's.
Do Hellas Verona and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 64% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hellas Verona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Parma finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.22 xG and Parma 1.30 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.75 / defence 1.44 against Parma attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 29% | Parma 37%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 54%, Parma 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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