Hellas Verona 0-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Monza at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off is Monday 21 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hellas Verona's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monza — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Monza have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Hellas Verona have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Hellas Verona have won 0, Monza 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2024, ended Hellas Verona 0–0 Monza — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 58% versus Monza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 56% | Monza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.52 xG and Monza 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.078 / defence 1.136 | Monza attack 0.852 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.276. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 45 games and Monza's last 45.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Monza 29%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.40 | Draw 3.38 | Monza 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 70% (last 10 home games) | Monza 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 21 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Monza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.52 / Monza 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.078 / def 1.136 | Monza attack 0.852 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Monza xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Monza kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Monza kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 21 October 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Hellas Verona 0 - 3 Monza.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Monza part of?
Hellas Verona vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 42% chance of winning, Monza a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hellas Verona and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hellas Verona vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.08) and Monza's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 45 games and Monza's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.38
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.75
1.24
Monza xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.24 for Monza, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 12W 11D 22L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 11W 16D 18L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 1.04 PPG, Monza on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 22 home games (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Monza have gone 5W 8D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Monza have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Monza away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.23 PPG; Monza away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2024, when Monza won Hellas Verona 0-3 Monza.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 1, Monza have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 64%, Monza 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hellas Verona) and 36% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 36% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 36% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 59% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Hellas Verona 0-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.52 xG and Monza 1.24 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Monza outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Monza 29%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, Monza 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.04 PPG, Monza 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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