Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Lazio travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Lazio have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Hellas Verona's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–4 with Lazio winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lazio have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Lazio trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 46% versus Lazio 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 52% | Lazio 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.91 xG and Lazio 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.947 / defence 1.250 | Lazio attack 0.756 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.179. Data: 56 Hellas Verona games / 57 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Lazio 40%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Lazio 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Lazio 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Hellas Verona 0.91 / Lazio 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.947 / def 1.250 | Lazio attack 0.756 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Lazio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Lazio xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Lazio kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Lazio part of?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 29% chance of winning, Lazio a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hellas Verona and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Record (9 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 3 | Lazio 5W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Lazio (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.95) and Lazio's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
29%
3.40
30%
3.29
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.02
1.11
Lazio xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.11 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 12W 14D 30L from 56 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 15L across 56 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 5W 8D 14L from 27 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 13W 5D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.39 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 14D 30L in their last 56 games (0.89 PPG), while Lazio have gone 23W 18D 15L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.85 PPG; Lazio away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Lazio in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2025, when Lazio won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 44%, Lazio 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hellas Verona) and 41% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 41%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 48% of games; Lazio in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 33% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 41% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Lazio tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lazio in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.91 xG and Lazio 1.11 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.95 / defence 1.25 against Lazio attack 0.76 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Lazio 40%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 52%, Lazio 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.