Hellas Verona 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Hellas Verona welcome Genoa to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Monday 4 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Genoa away from home this season: 0W 7D 3L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hellas Verona carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 0 for Genoa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 80% and Genoa 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 70% | Genoa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.75 xG and Genoa 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.261 / defence 1.145 | Genoa attack 0.593 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.259. Hellas Verona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Hellas Verona games / 30 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 58% | Draw 26% | Genoa 17%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hellas Verona 80% | Genoa 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 58% | Draw 26% | Genoa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Hellas Verona 1.75 / Genoa 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.261 / def 1.145 | Genoa attack 0.593 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Genoa xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Genoa kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Hellas Verona 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Genoa part of?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 58% chance of winning, Genoa a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hellas Verona and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Genoa in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 1.26x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
58%
1.74
26%
3.92
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.61
0.85
Genoa xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
3%
34.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.85 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 11W 9D 10L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 2W 16D 12L from 30 games, 0.73 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Hellas Verona are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 1W 8D 6L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.77 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Genoa in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Genoa have gone 2W 16D 12L in their last 30 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Genoa away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.73 PPG; Genoa away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Genoa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Genoa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hellas Verona at 80%, Genoa at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Hellas Verona and 47% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hellas Verona's games and 53% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Hellas Verona's matches and 47% of Genoa's.
Do Hellas Verona and Genoa tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Genoa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.75 xG and Genoa 0.85 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.26 / defence 1.15 against Genoa attack 0.59 / defence 1.29, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 58% | Draw 26% | Genoa 17%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 70%, Genoa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.