Hellas Verona 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 5W 1D 3L from 9 Serie A appearances (1.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 78% and Fiorentina 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 72% | Fiorentina 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.62 xG and Fiorentina 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.166 / defence 1.050 | Fiorentina attack 0.733 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.463. Data: 18 Hellas Verona games / 18 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 49% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 26%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 3.85. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 78% | Fiorentina 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 49% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Hellas Verona 1.62 / Fiorentina 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.166 / def 1.050 | Fiorentina attack 0.733 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Fiorentina xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina part of?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 49% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hellas Verona and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.17) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.73x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.05
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.75
1.13
Fiorentina xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
5%
19.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.13 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 5D 7L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (10W 1D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Fiorentina in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 10W 1D 7L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Fiorentina away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.78 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Hellas Verona, 56% for Fiorentina — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Hellas Verona and 56% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Hellas Verona's games and 56% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Hellas Verona's matches and 56% of Fiorentina's.
Do Hellas Verona and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 19, as Hellas Verona and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.62 xG and Fiorentina 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.17 / defence 1.05 against Fiorentina attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 49% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 26%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 72%, Fiorentina 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.