Hellas Verona 0-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Monday 28 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cagliari have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cagliari away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Hellas Verona, 0.90 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Hellas Verona 2W, Cagliari 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Cagliari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 49% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 51% | Cagliari 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.87 xG and Cagliari 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.675 / defence 1.266 | Cagliari attack 0.770 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.104. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Hellas Verona games / 71 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 39%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Cagliari 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 20% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 28 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Hellas Verona 0.87 / Cagliari 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.675 / def 1.266 | Cagliari attack 0.770 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Cagliari xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 28 April 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Hellas Verona 0 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari part of?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 28% chance of winning, Cagliari a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hellas Verona and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Cagliari in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.68x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.77x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
28%
3.55
33%
3.05
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
1.95
1.08
Cagliari xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.08 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 18W 16D 37L from 71 games, a 0.99 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 35L across 71 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.99 PPG for Hellas Verona against 0.93 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 10W 9D 16L from 35 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 10D 21L across 35 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 18W 16D 37L in their last 71 games (0.99 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 21D 35L in their last 71 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Cagliari away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.11 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cagliari won 4-0 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Cagliari have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 51%, Cagliari 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Hellas Verona) and 49% (Cagliari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 34% of games; Cagliari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 51% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hellas Verona's matches and 49% of Cagliari's.
Do Hellas Verona and Cagliari tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Hellas Verona 0-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.87 xG and Cagliari 1.08 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cagliari outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.68 / defence 1.27 against Cagliari attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 39%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.99 PPG, Cagliari 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.