Genoa vs Sassuolo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sassuolo are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Genoa have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Sassuolo have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Genoa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus Sassuolo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 50% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.18 xG and Sassuolo 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.914 / defence 1.104 | Sassuolo attack 0.937 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Genoa games / 40 Sassuolo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 39%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Sassuolo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Genoa dominate the H2H record, yet Sassuolo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Genoa 1.18 / Sassuolo 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.914 / def 1.104 | Sassuolo attack 0.937 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Sassuolo xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Sassuolo kick off?
Genoa vs Sassuolo is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 25 April 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Sassuolo part of?
Genoa vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Record (6 meetings): Genoa 4W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.67
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.28
Sassuolo xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Genoa and 1.28 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 10W 11D 19L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo's form line: 15W 7D 18L from 40 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.02 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Sassuolo away?
Genoa's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.10 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Genoa's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Sassuolo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 45%, Sassuolo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Genoa) and 55% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 45% of games; Sassuolo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Genoa's recent matches and 60% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Genoa's matches and 55% of Sassuolo's.
Do Genoa and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.