Genoa 1-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Parma in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 0W 6D 4L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season.
Parma's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Parma have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Genoa, 1.10 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genoa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Parma in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genoa lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Parma 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Parma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.44 xG and Parma 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.853 / defence 1.028 | Parma attack 0.758 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.325. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Genoa games / 19 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 30% | Parma 25%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 4.00. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Parma 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 30% | Parma 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Genoa 1.44 / Parma 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.853 / def 1.028 | Parma attack 0.758 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Genoa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Parma xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Parma kick off?
Genoa vs Parma kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Parma?
Genoa 1 - 0 Parma.
Where is Genoa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Parma part of?
Genoa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 45% chance of winning, Parma a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genoa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Genoa and Parma in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.76x) against Genoa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.33
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.47
1.03
Parma xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Genoa and 1.03 for Parma, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 16W 21D 20L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 25W 20D 12L from 57 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (8W 12D 8L).
On the road, Parma have gone 11W 11D 6L from 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.60 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Parma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 16W 21D 20L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Parma have gone 25W 20D 12L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.29 PPG; Parma away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Parma 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Parma?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 57%, Parma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Genoa) and 61% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Genoa's games and 61% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Genoa's recent games and 61% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Parma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Parma in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Parma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Parma 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.44 xG and Parma 1.03 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Parma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Parma attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 45% | Draw 30% | Parma 25%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Parma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.