Genoa 0-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Genoa take on Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Genoa welcome Cremonese to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Genoa's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Cremonese 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Cremonese 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.90 xG and Cremonese 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.642 / defence 1.067 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.067. Genoa's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Genoa games / 8 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Cremonese 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 40% | Cremonese 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Genoa 0.90 / Cremonese 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.642 / def 1.067 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cremonese xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Cremonese kick off?
Genoa vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Cremonese?
Genoa 0 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Genoa vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Cremonese part of?
Genoa vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 30% chance of winning, Cremonese a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Genoa and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Cremonese in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.64x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.35
36%
2.80
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.88
0.98
Cremonese xG
3.35
30%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Genoa and 0.98 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 16D 20L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 18W 19D 9L from 46 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (5W 9D 9L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 10W 7D 6L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.59 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 16D 20L in their last 46 games (1.00 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 18W 19D 9L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.04 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Cremonese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Genoa
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Cremonese 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Genoa) and 65% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 65% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Genoa's recent games and 65% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Cremonese tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.90 xG and Cremonese 0.98 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.64 / defence 1.07 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 30% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.