Genoa 4-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates AS Roma at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face AS Roma.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 6). Kick-off: Thursday 28 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Form

Genoa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Genoa at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Genoa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

AS Roma's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AS Roma's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Genoa, 1.00 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Genoa, 1 for AS Roma and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2022, ended Genoa 0–0 AS Roma — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 37% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | AS Roma 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.44 xG and AS Roma 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.966 / defence 1.467 | AS Roma attack 0.988 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.093. Genoa's defence rating of 1.467 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from Genoa's last 5 games and AS Roma's last 43.

Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.99 | Draw 3.76 | AS Roma 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).

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