Frosinone 3-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Salernitana meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Frosinone, 0 for Salernitana and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 55% versus Salernitana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 54% | Salernitana 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.92 xG and Salernitana 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.938 / defence 1.264 | Salernitana attack 0.790 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.214. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Frosinone games / 71 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 54% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 24%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Salernitana 4.17. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 70% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 54% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Frosinone 1.92 / Salernitana 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.938 / def 1.264 | Salernitana attack 0.790 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Salernitana xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Salernitana kick off?
Frosinone vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Frosinone 3 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Frosinone vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Salernitana part of?
Frosinone vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 54% chance of winning, Salernitana a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Frosinone and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Salernitana in?
Frosinone (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Salernitana (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.79x) against Frosinone's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.44
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.13
1.21
Salernitana xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
4%
28.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.21 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 30W 18D 23L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Salernitana's form line: 11W 24D 36L from 71 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.91 PPG from 35 outings (20W 7D 8L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 3W 13D 19L from 35 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.04 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 30W 18D 23L in their last 71 games (1.52 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 24D 36L in their last 71 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Salernitana away?
Frosinone's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.91 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Salernitana in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Salernitana?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Salernitana 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Salernitana?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 51%, Salernitana 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Frosinone) and 54% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Salernitana in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Frosinone's recent matches and 54% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Frosinone's matches and 54% of Salernitana's.
Do Frosinone and Salernitana tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Salernitana 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.92 xG and Salernitana 1.21 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salernitana landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Salernitana attack 0.79 / defence 1.54, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 54% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 24%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 54%, Salernitana 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salernitana's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.