Fiorentina 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as Fiorentina welcome Parma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Parma — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0, Parma 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Parma in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Parma 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Parma 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.78 xG and Parma 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.195 / defence 0.773 | Parma attack 0.671 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.168. Fiorentina's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Fiorentina games / 31 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 65% | Draw 25% | Parma 11%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.54 | Draw 4.00 | Parma 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 30% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 65% | Draw 25% | Parma 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 39% | xG Fiorentina 1.78 / Parma 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.195 / def 0.773 | Parma attack 0.671 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Parma xG
39%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Parma kick off?
Fiorentina vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Parma?
Fiorentina 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Fiorentina vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Parma part of?
Fiorentina vs Parma is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 65% chance of winning, Parma a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fiorentina and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Parma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Parma (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.20) and Parma's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
65%
1.55
25%
4.07
11%
9.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.39
0.61
Parma xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
9.26
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
2%
55.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.61 for Parma, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 69 games, going 32W 16D 21L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.49 PPG from 69 outings (26W 25D 18L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.62 PPG, Parma on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 20W 7D 7L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.35 points per game from 34 outings (11W 13D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.49 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 65%.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Parma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 32W 16D 21L in their last 69 games (1.62 PPG), while Parma have gone 26W 25D 18L in their last 69 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Parma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.97 PPG; Parma away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fiorentina
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 56%, Parma 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fiorentina and 56% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fiorentina's games and 59% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fiorentina's matches and 56% of Parma's.
Do Fiorentina and Parma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Parma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 32, as Fiorentina and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.78 xG and Parma 0.61 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.20 / defence 0.77 against Parma attack 0.67 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 65% | Draw 25% | Parma 11%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Parma 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.62 PPG, Parma 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.