Fiorentina 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Inter at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Inter have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Fiorentina's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Inter trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 60% versus Inter 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 61% | Inter 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 0.74 xG and Inter 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.909 / defence 0.985 | Inter attack 1.287 / defence 0.648. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.191. Inter's defence strength of 0.648 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Fiorentina games / 67 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 18% | Draw 26% | Inter 56%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Inter 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 60% | Inter 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 18% | Draw 26% | Inter 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Fiorentina 0.74 / Inter 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.909 / def 0.985 | Inter attack 1.287 / def 0.648 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Inter xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Inter kick off?
Fiorentina vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Inter.
Where is Fiorentina vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Inter part of?
Fiorentina vs Inter is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 18% chance of winning, Inter a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fiorentina and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
Record (9 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 1 | Inter 6W.
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.91) and Inter's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
18%
5.43
26%
3.84
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.25
1.51
Inter xG
5.43
18%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
4%
24.55
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 15.9 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.51 for Inter, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 18D 24L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.22 PPG from 67 outings (46W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fiorentina's home form reads 15W 9D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.15 points per game from 33 outings (22W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.15 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 18D 24L in their last 67 games (1.39 PPG), while Inter have gone 46W 11D 10L in their last 67 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.64 PPG; Inter away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Inter have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 61%, Inter 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Fiorentina) and 42% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Inter in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 30% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Fiorentina's recent games and 42% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Inter tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Inter in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Inter finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.74 xG and Inter 1.51 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Inter attack 1.29 / defence 0.65, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 18% | Draw 26% | Inter 56%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 61%, Inter 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.