Fiorentina 1-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Fiorentina welcome Empoli to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0, Empoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 59% and Empoli 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 66% | Empoli 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.52 xG and Empoli 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.259 / defence 1.010 | Empoli attack 0.697 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.260. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Fiorentina games / 30 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 50% | Draw 30% | Empoli 20%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 5.00. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 40% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 50% | Draw 30% | Empoli 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Fiorentina 1.52 / Empoli 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.259 / def 1.010 | Empoli attack 0.697 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Empoli xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Empoli kick off?
Fiorentina vs Empoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Fiorentina vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Empoli part of?
Fiorentina vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 50% chance of winning, Empoli a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fiorentina and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.37
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.41
0.89
Empoli xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
22.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.89 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 29 games, going 14W 5D 10L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.14 PPG from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 9W 2D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.29 points per game from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.38 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 14W 5D 10L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Empoli away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.07 PPG; Empoli away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Empoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
4
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Empoli have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 50%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Fiorentina) and 36% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Empoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Fiorentina's matches and 36% of Empoli's.
Do Fiorentina and Empoli tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Empoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Empoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.52 xG and Empoli 0.89 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.26 / defence 1.01 against Empoli attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 50% | Draw 30% | Empoli 20%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 66%, Empoli 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.