Empoli 2-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 52%, yet in-form Empoli provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Empoli and Genoa meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 5L across 6 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season.
Genoa (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Serie A this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Empoli's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Empoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Genoa in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Genoa — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 54% and Genoa 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Empoli 64% | Genoa 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.38 xG and Genoa 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.780 / defence 1.697 | Genoa attack 0.853 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.379. Empoli's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Empoli games / 11 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 26% | Draw 22% | Genoa 52%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Genoa 1.92. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Empoli (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 67% | Genoa 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 26% | Draw 22% | Genoa 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Empoli 1.38 / Genoa 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.780 / def 1.697 | Genoa attack 0.853 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Genoa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Genoa xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Genoa kick off?
Empoli vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Empoli 2 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Empoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Genoa part of?
Empoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 26% chance of winning, Genoa a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Empoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Genoa in?
Empoli (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.85x) against Empoli's defence (1.70x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
26%
3.78
22%
4.61
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Empoli xG
Total xG
3.37
2.00
Genoa xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
14%
7.36
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
4%
27.85
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Empoli and 2.00 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 0D 6L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.73 PPG from 11 outings (1W 5D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 1W 0D 5L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.36 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.36 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 5W 0D 6L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.50 PPG; Genoa away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
5
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Empoli, 67% for Genoa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Empoli and 67% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Genoa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Empoli's games and 67% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Empoli's matches and 67% of Genoa's.
Do Empoli and Genoa tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Genoa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Genoa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Genoa finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.38 xG and Genoa 2.00 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.78 / defence 1.70 against Genoa attack 0.85 / defence 1.39, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 26% | Draw 22% | Genoa 52%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 64%, Genoa 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Empoli arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.