Empoli 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cagliari at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cagliari travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to take on Empoli in Serie A (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Empoli — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cagliari stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cagliari — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Empoli have won 2, Cagliari 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Empoli 2–0 Cagliari — a Empoli win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 35% | Cagliari 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.80 xG and Cagliari 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.623 / defence 1.270 | Cagliari attack 0.806 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.173. Empoli's attack rating of 0.623 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Empoli's defence rating of 1.270 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 68 games and Cagliari's last 68.
Result probabilities: Empoli 23% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 44%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.34 | Draw 3.04 | Cagliari 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Empoli 40% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 23% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Empoli 0.80 / Cagliari 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.623 / def 1.270 | Cagliari attack 0.806 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cagliari xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Cagliari kick off?
Empoli vs Cagliari kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Empoli 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Empoli vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Cagliari part of?
Empoli vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 23% chance of winning, Cagliari a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Empoli and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Empoli vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.62) and Cagliari's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 68 games and Cagliari's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
23%
4.34
33%
3.04
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.00
1.20
Cagliari xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 16.3 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Empoli and 1.20 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli come into this having played 68 games, going 13W 20D 35L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.96 PPG from 68 outings (15W 20D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 0.87 PPG, Cagliari on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Empoli's home form reads 6W 10D 17L across their last 33 home games, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.64 points per game from their last 33 away games (4W 9D 20L).
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.07 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
Empoli (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Empoli vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 20D 35L in their last 68 games (0.87 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 20D 33L in their last 68 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Cagliari away?
Empoli's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.85 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Empoli
3
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cagliari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 2, Cagliari have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2025: Empoli 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Cagliari?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 27%, Cagliari 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Empoli) and 48% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 61% of games; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Empoli's recent matches and 52% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Empoli's recent games and 48% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Empoli's recent matches and 70% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 31, as Empoli and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.80 xG and Cagliari 1.20 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.62 / defence 1.27 against Cagliari attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 23% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 44%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 35%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.87 PPG, Cagliari 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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