Cremonese 0-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cremonese face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Inter at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Inter have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Inter, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Cremonese.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–4 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Inter in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 60% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Inter 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.74 xG and Inter 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.810 / defence 1.199 | Inter attack 1.226 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.146. Inter's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Cremonese games / 60 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 24% | Inter 60%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Inter (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 60% | Inter 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 24% | Inter 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Cremonese 0.74 / Inter 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.810 / def 1.199 | Inter attack 1.226 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Inter (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Inter xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Inter kick off?
Cremonese vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Inter?
Cremonese 0 - 2 Inter.
Where is Cremonese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Inter part of?
Cremonese vs Inter is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 16% chance of winning, Inter a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cremonese and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Inter?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 3W.
What form are Cremonese and Inter in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Inter (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.81x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
16%
6.25
24%
4.18
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.42
1.68
Inter xG
6.25
16%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
3%
33.67
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.68 for Inter, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 21W 22D 17L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 41W 10D 9L from 60 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.41 PPG from 29 outings (9W 14D 6L).
On the road, Inter have gone 19W 5D 5L from 29 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.15 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Inter in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 22D 17L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Inter have gone 41W 10D 9L in their last 60 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.41 PPG; Inter away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Inter runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Inter won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
0
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Inter?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Inter have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Cremonese 0-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 69%, Inter 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 45% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Cremonese's recent matches and 34% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 45% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Inter tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Inter in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Cremonese 0-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.74 xG and Inter 1.68 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Inter attack 1.23 / defence 0.73, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 16% | Draw 24% | Inter 60%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Inter 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.