Como 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to take on Como. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Como have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Fiorentina — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Como carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Como, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Como winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Como trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Fiorentina 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 43% | Fiorentina 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.82 xG and Fiorentina 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.189 / defence 0.718 | Fiorentina attack 0.889 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.205. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Como's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Como games / 62 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 62% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 15%. Fair-value odds: Como 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Fiorentina 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Como (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Como 40% | Fiorentina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 62% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Como 1.82 / Fiorentina 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.189 / def 0.718 | Fiorentina attack 0.889 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Como (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Fiorentina xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Fiorentina kick off?
Como vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Fiorentina?
Como 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Como vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Fiorentina part of?
Como vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Como a 62% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Como and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Como 2W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Como and Fiorentina in?
Como (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Como's attack at 1.19x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Como's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.43
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Como xG
Total xG
2.59
0.77
Fiorentina xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
40.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Como and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Como and 0.77 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Como's recent record stands at 24W 18D 19L from 61 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 23L across 61 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.48 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Como have managed 14W 9D 7L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.41 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Como have gone 24W 18D 19L in their last 61 games (1.48 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Fiorentina away?
Como's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.70 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Como or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Como's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Como
0
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Como and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Como 1-2 Fiorentina.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 57%, Fiorentina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Como) and 60% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Como's games and 57% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Como's recent games and 60% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Como 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Como 1-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.82 xG and Fiorentina 0.77 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Como fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Fiorentina outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.19 / defence 0.72 against Fiorentina attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 62% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 15%, with Como to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 43%, Fiorentina 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.48 PPG, Fiorentina 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.