Cagliari 2-1 Parma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cagliari at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Parma.

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Fixture Analysis

Cagliari welcome Parma to Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Cagliari — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Cagliari's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Parma have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Parma have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Cagliari) versus 0.80 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Cagliari, 1 for Parma and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2024, ended Cagliari 3–2 Parma — a Cagliari win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Parma in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 61% and Parma 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Parma 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 75% of the time, while Parma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.79 xG and Parma 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.012 / defence 1.132 | Parma attack 0.808 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.331. Parma's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 61 games and Parma's last 23.

Result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Parma 24%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.07 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 4.23. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cagliari's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cagliari 40% (last 10 home games) | Parma 60% (last 10 away games).

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