Cagliari 2-3 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Cagliari welcome Genoa to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Serie A matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.50 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.74 xG and Genoa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.954 / defence 1.219 | Genoa attack 0.684 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.527. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Cagliari games / 2 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 24% | Genoa 28%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Genoa 3.57. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 24% | Genoa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Cagliari 1.74 / Genoa 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.954 / def 1.219 | Genoa attack 0.684 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.527 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Genoa xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Genoa kick off?
Cagliari vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Cagliari 2 - 3 Genoa.
Where is Cagliari vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Genoa part of?
Cagliari vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 48% chance of winning, Genoa a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cagliari and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in?
Cagliari (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L. Genoa (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.95) and Genoa's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.25
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.01
1.27
Genoa xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
20.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.27 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cagliari are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Genoa have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Genoa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cagliari
5
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Cagliari's matches and 100% of Genoa's.
Do Cagliari and Genoa tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Genoa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Cagliari 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Cagliari 2-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.74 xG and Genoa 1.27 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against Genoa attack 0.68 / defence 1.42, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 48% | Draw 24% | Genoa 28%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 100%, Genoa 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Cagliari arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.