Cagliari vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 38 as Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Roma — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Cagliari.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 48% versus AS Roma 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 48% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.94 xG and AS Roma 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.884 / defence 0.939 | AS Roma attack 1.360 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Cagliari games / 40 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 23% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 52%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 1.92. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 30% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 23% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Cagliari 0.94 / AS Roma 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.884 / def 0.939 | AS Roma attack 1.360 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.57
AS Roma xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs AS Roma kick off?
Cagliari vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 May 2027 at Unipol Domus.
Where is Cagliari vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs AS Roma part of?
Cagliari vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 23% chance of winning, AS Roma a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cagliari and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
Record (8 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 6W.
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
23%
4.42
25%
3.95
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.52
1.57
AS Roma xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
21.36
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.57 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 10D 18L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.98 PPG from 40 outings (25W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cagliari's home form reads 7W 4D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (11W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.68 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.25 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Cagliari or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AS Roma in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 35%, AS Roma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Cagliari) and 45% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 40%; Cagliari have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cagliari's recent matches and 40% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cagliari's recent games and 45% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and AS Roma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.